There’s Bitcoin the currency. There’s Bitcoin the technology, the blockchain. Then there’s Bitcoin the network itself, and those three things work together to create a system. For the first year, probably year and a half, arguably Bitcoin didn’t work as a practical means of exchange because it didn’t have value through adoption. It takes a certain momentum of people using it.
Money is an interesting abstraction; money is a language we use to express value. But how money gets its value itself, is a subject of a line of philosophical debate. The bottom line today is money gets its value through adoption, through use. Meaning that if I give you something and you’re willing to give me something in return, then it’s money. If I can buy eggs with it, it’s money, right?
You can’t separate the money from the technology from the network. What I can tell you is that this is still an experimental system, the currency itself is subject to volatility and fluctuation, it’s subject to market sentiment, reputation risks, and manipulation. So there are ways that conceivably Bitcoin could crash, probably very unlikely at this point. It survived so many rounds of near-death crashes and the thing about money is that the fact that it bounces back and continues to exist gives it even more value. Resilience is part of the value.
Bitcoin today is my mind is unlikely to suffer a crash. But if it did, we couldn’t predict that, because it’s a market-based system. What we can predict is that the blockchain technology will be here a decade from now and will fundamentally transform financial services. Most likely, probably higher than 90% probability it’s going to do that with Bitcoin, as the currency and under the same name, but there is a small chance it will do that under a different currency.
We’ve said this many, many times. We don’t think Bitcoin, the currency is a sensible investment for most people, it’s far too volatile. If you have a well-balanced portfolio, you understand what a high volatility asset is like and you’re willing to take that kind of risk, maybe you allocate a small percentage of your portfolio into the high risk. For example, if you do that with penny stocks, or if you do that with small currency, small-cap countries, then maybe it’s for you.
The most effective way to make a million dollars with Bitcoin is to start with 2 million.